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The impact of the Trump administration's tariff increase on aluminum derivatives on the global aluminum industry chain and its response

2025-09-25

The impact of the Trump administration's tariff increase on aluminum derivatives on the global aluminum industry chain and its response

I. Core Policy Changes

On August 18, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 50% import tariff on 407 aluminum-derivative products, covering industrial sectors such as auto parts, machinery and equipment, building material profiles, and appliance casings. This policy, while continuing the logic of implementing Section 232 under the guise of "national security," aims to reshape the U.S. metals supply chain. However, the resulting volatility in global aluminum trade has far exceeded expectations.


II. Multi-Dimensional Impact on the Global Aluminum Supply Chain

Supply Chain Cost and Restructuring
U.S. domestic manufacturing relies on imported aluminum for over 50% of its supply. The new tariffs will directly increase production costs in downstream industries. Procurement costs for aluminum for automakers, new energy equipment (photovoltaic racks/energy storage housings), and aerospace companies are expected to rise by 15%-20%, forcing companies to accelerate the relocation of processing to near-shore locations such as Mexico and Canada.

Shifting Patterns in Sino-U.S. Aluminum Trade
China's share of aluminum exports to the U.S. has already fallen from 4% in 2024 to approximately 6% by June 2025. This tariff expansion will further squeeze the export space for standard aluminum products. However, high-end aluminum profiles (such as new energy battery brackets and lightweight automotive structural parts) remain eligible for tariff exemptions due to their limited substitutability.

The mismatch between domestic production capacity and demand.
Restarting idle electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the United States will take 9-12 months, making the shortfall in derivative products difficult to fill in the short term. North American aluminum spot premiums have risen by 30% by the third quarter of 2025, and aluminum extrusion procurement lead times are expected to extend to over 60 days this year.


III. Key Response Strategies for Chinese Industrial Aluminum Profile Companies

Short-Term Action Recommendations:

Tax Code Screening: Immediately verify the classification of exported products under the US HTS Customs Code, focusing on new tariff codes under Chapter 76 (such as the 7609 and 7610 series).

Tariff Exclusion Application: Submit an exclusion request jointly with US importers to demonstrate that there are no domestic substitutes for the product (e.g., specialty alloy profiles and ultra-precision cross-section products).

Medium- to Long-Term Strategic Adjustments:

Supply Chain Diversification: Establish aluminum profile deep processing bases in Southeast Asia (Vietnam/Thailand) to leverage the 7% tariff advantage against the US.

Product Technology Breakthroughs: Developing aluminum-composite hybrid structural components to reduce aluminum content per component; promoting recycled aluminum process certification (such as the GRS standard) to meet green procurement requirements in Europe and the United States.

Market Diversification: Expanding exports to the EU (new energy vehicle profiles), the Middle East (photovoltaic bracket profiles), and RCEP member countries.


IV. Our Industry Observations and Value Commitment

As a company deeply engaged in the R&D and manufacturing of industrial aluminum profiles, we believe:

1. High-end and green development are the key paths to breaking through trade barriers. Starting with the aluminum bars we use, we focus on carbon footprint indicators to provide more environmentally friendly products to demanding customers in Europe and the United States.

2. Regional supply chain collaboration will become the new normal. We need to collaborate with more mature trading partners to provide customers with tariff-optimized supply chain solutions.

3. Innovation in material substitution technologies needs to be strengthened. Higher-strength aluminum alloys remain to be developed.

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